Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Glad we dont have to worry about any of that stuff happening here:36_1_63:




Winter Solstice Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest

Hello Jim:
I send this to you from the snowy Seattle, Washington metropolitan area where we are digging out of a fairly impressive storm of snow and icy temperatures that have plagued an unprepared area. As a cop and a Preparedness Oriented Person (POP), I have been watching the lead up to and duration of this weather event. Here are some observations:

Advance Warning & Notification
Folks in these parts complained that there was little warning of the impending snow event. Some stated that since weather forecasters were often wrong, they would be wrong about this. When you had local television outlets, NOAA, The Weather Channel and AccuWeather all providing similar information, some of us would call that a trend likely to occur. Indeed, there was anywhere from a week to 10 days advance warning and modeling showing the cold temperatures and ice. Gosh, you didn’t have to have a degree in weather sciences to understand that when warm air with moisture slides over the top of entrenched cold air, you would get snow. Media outlets correctly warned folks to prepare. In my observations, most did not heed the warning until it began to get bad. Indeed, metropolitan areas (as I type this) have seen from 6-20 inches of snow. Outlying areas are at three (3) feet or higher! That is impressive for this area.

The Problems
Folks from other regions, especially the Midwest, often chuckle when folks in the Western Pacific Northwest (Portland Metro and Tacoma-Seattle-Everett Metro) areas complain of a few inches of snow. Problem is that much of these cities are built on hilly areas. Some cities see a 500-800 foot elevation gain within the city limits, features not seen with our neighbors in the plains. Add to the mix infrequent snow events so there are few plows and you have an immediate transportation problem. The lack of plows has hampered a quick cleanup of arterials in the region along with a general reluctance to use road salts (environmental issues so heartily embraced in this liberal region). Sand pits are well away from urban areas so transportation of sand to terminal points or public works yards were hampered. Most cities and the counties have given up on side streets and less traveled rural roads, leaving them to become ice skidding messes. Many people in the region were smug that their front, all or four wheel drives would get them through the mess, up and down hills, all without alternative traction devices like chains. That has led to nearly 1,000 collisions just on the interstates alone (early estimates are that there are likely 10,000 or more collisions, spin outs, street blockages and so on in the cities which have not tallied their response counts like the state). When heavy snow started falling, roads were passable at slow speeds. However, timid drivers afraid of the snow would abandon their cars on the streets and state highways, leading to blockages. These blockages would snarl traffic, cause collisions and block major transit routes for goods and services. For the airports, a shortage of liquid de-icer led to delays and cancellations (it should be noted that one company in North America makes de-icer and a strike there led to shortages – a ripple effect). Avalanche dangers led to passenger rail cancellations. Commercial bus companies canceled their runs due to closed mountain passes or streets adjacent to their terminals that were iced over and not sanded or plowed. At one point, the roads became so poor that our chief ordered us back to the station for emergency responses only, no active patrolling. Folks would call us for the most inane stuff. Unfortunately, this was stuff we would respond to on normal weather days. However, when they were told they were on their own to solve these minor problems, they got mad! Somehow, it was foreign to many of them to that they would have to solve problems like blocked cars or icy sidewalks. Unreal and yet, expected for this area. Makes one think of the challenges people would have in bugging out if a volcano were to cork off, an earthquake to split some bridges or a WMD type event.

JIT Wasn’t In Time
Just In Time (JIT)deliveries were hampered by the road conditions. Many gas stations in the region are starting to run their tanks dry as commercial fuel carriers can’t move product safely on icy arterials and side streets. Grocery stores reported runs on staples and emergency supplies (batteries, candles and TP, just to name some items) but were limited on restocking because normal 18 wheeler rigs were downloaded to smaller trucks or bobtails, just to make it safely. Many people failed to remember the last major storm we had and did not fuel in advance, either gas cans for their generators or their vehicles. Last week, prior to the storm and to beat an expected OPEC price hike, I was refueling some gas cans and topping off my car. I had a fellow look at me and ask if I was expecting the worst. I explained that I would be ready as I had learned early. His response to me was typical of folks in this area: “Nah, we’ll have regular deliveries.” I expect his thirsty F250 must be a bit annoying to him right now, especially after both gas station in my area and many more surrounding gas stations in the area when dry. I spoke with grocery store managers in my patrol area. They reported that people needed “just a few things” to tie them over. These people came back to find limited supplies like milk or eggs and were mad at the store! Certain large grocery chain stores reported that they ran out of shopping carts as so many people crowded into the stores to get what they could when the snow began to fall and stick. A local hardware store manager told me that he had a stream of people that came into his store, angry that he had sold out of faucet covers, rock salt, presto fire logs and snow shovels. He laughed when he told me that he saw the weather trending as did the corporate offices. They sent him additional product to stock and he sold it quickly, early on to those he described as, “Preparing early and correctly.” My liberal, elderly neighbors became snowbound. They believed that the government would make sure they could drive by having a plowed road in front of their house. [JWR Adds: See this Seattle Times article for background on counterproductive city policy: Seattle refuses to use salt; roads "snow packed" by design.] My wife and I wound up assisting them with taking some supplies to them when they ran out because they could not get out to the store.

Personal Preparations
I have been though many weird storms in this area. When I started tracking the forecasts 10 days out, I made sure I had the necessary food stuffs, fuel and firewood ready. The generator was tested. The inverter cart was charged and readied. The wood was stacked for easy access from the piles. The chainsaw was tested and topped off. It didn’t take much. I asked folks both at work and in the community if they were ready to hunker down if they needed to. Most of my fellow officers looked at me and said, “it won’t be that bad. I can always go out and get some stuff.” They would have to admit to me later that it took an awful long time to go out to find that milk, or it was sheer terror driving on the roads for a half gallon of milk.

Folks in the Pacific Northwest have no reason for not being prepared. And yet, I saw the same mistakes being repeated. Folks lulled themselves into complacency, believing that JIT deliveries would be there, roads would be tended to quickly and they could get out there and take care of things, “as needed.” I have learned it is the same folks who remain prepared, time and again, and who help those who either are too sheep like to do the minor work of preparing or recognizing that bad weather, environmental or mad-made events, can and do occur.

I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and Winter Solstice. I’m back to work in a day to deal with more snow (and more dealings with sheep). - MP in Seattle

http://www.survivalblog.com/

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Glad you posted this, TA. I'm in Spokane and a new storm is due to hit us this afternoon, lasting until tomorrow late afternoon. We were supposed to go to Sandpoint (60+ miles northeast of us) to have Christmas with my youngest son and his lady, but after reading this post I decided to do some checking. We're supposed to get 12 inches of snow overnight and they are warning people to stay off the roads unless it's an emergency. Damn!

I called my son and told him we weren't going to make it. I'd love to be there, but it just isn't worth risking my life and my Mom's life. The storm last week caused over 200 accidents in a 12 hour period, and I don't want to wind up a statistic.

Mom and I are heading to the grocery store 2 blocks from here in just a few minutes to stock up on essentials, rent a couple of movies, fill the car and gas cans with gas, and buy the makings for hot buttered rums. It's going to be a quiet, but safe, Christmas for us. We'll head to Sandpoint next week for a belated celebration.

Hope your holiday is grand and that everyone here at GIM has a safe and blessed Christmas!:s9:

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

It is bad here. The biggest issue, like the post points out, are the elevation changes and lack of snow removal equipment. Then people doing the ridiculous, such as leaving their car IN THE ROAD due to not wanting/able to drive in the poor road conditions. I'm not talking on the shoulder, I'm talking at an intersection, in a lane on a freeway. STUPID. The news can't repeat it enough times for people to just stay the F home! That and not to run your generator or BBQ INDOORS during a power outage! (Several people died after the big wind storm a few years back from operating generators and BBQ's indoors)

I had to pick up my mom and take her to the store since her house was void of food. Many of the big grocery stores were half empty and the lines were up to a 2 hour wait. My mom also mentioned buying a generator in case the power goes out. HAHAHA!! I had that talk with her a few years back but she didn't want to spend the $$. Suddenly, it's a priority! Of course there were no generators to be had either.

In a SHTF situation in western WA, I think many people will die due to their own lack of preparation and knowledge and not from thieves and looters.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

portland, the city that works! great city slogan or whatever, saw two plow trucks last nite in 6 hours of driving. first luggage delivery, the passenger had been waiting 4 days for his luggage. the airport is a zoo right now, some planes flying. roger on the jit delivery system for the grocery stores around here. chains for vehicles sold out at a lot of auto stores. thanx to the folks on gim for stressing being prepped food wise, the hall closet will come in handy if this continues for another week. no mail yesterday, will see if it comes today. mike in portland, orygun.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Thanks for the post TA. Goes to show how unprepared people are for a simple snow storm, what are they going to do when the truck only shows up once a month?

There will come a tipping point where those that prepared ahead of time wont be able to help all those that did not, it would just overwhelm them.

Agree with Zsun on that they will die from thier stupidity rather than looters and theives. Too many socialist utopia types believe the government is their savior. When things get bad like this the only survivors will be those that know better and are independent.

Its also ironic that those socialists believe in darwins theory yet dont understand with natural selection they are the first ones going to go when things get bad...

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

And people think I am crazy for saying 2/3's of the population will be wiped out before this is over.

We are BEYOND RIPE for such calimity to be visited upon us.


T

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Central WA here. Went to the fave grocer-not fer food, really. Made the quick tour, around 7:15 AM.
Whole sections cleaned out. Noted most dairy, all eggs(ALL), most baconesque meats, pre-packaged juices SEVERELY depleted.
Mentioned it at work this morning, found out the boss had to park out in the hinterlands yesterday and hike to the same store. High demand? Region expecting a decent storm tonight. We didn't get it like either westside or Spokane did earlier.
Got word that produce trucks having a hard time making it to the store over the past couple of days.
I'm ready for transportation failures, in fact it's the focus of my preps. I take this as a lesson of what might come due to oconomic conditions deteriorating.
Good luck to the red at heart on the westside. Sorry about all the pink cali transplants over the past coupla decades.
**Remember when the passes didn't frequently close?**
Stay snug, those of you near the Blues.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

wife sent me to safeway for some stuff, milk cooler half empty, got last bunch of cilantro in the store. produce guy says trucks can't get in and out of distribution warehouses to pick and load for the stores. 34 degrees near the columbia, melting a little. on the way out saw three 300 lb folks getting out of their f350 v10 and heading to the movie store. guess they believe in having food preps with them at all times. topped up fuel tank, extra 5 gal in can. merry christmas to all here. surrounded by mopes and halfwits in portland, orygun.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

A white X-mass this year in Vancouver! Better not snow during the Olympics next year! :biggrin:

White Christmas disrupts travel plans for thousands of Canadians

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

I believe I said this summer that the Farmer's Almanac 2008 predicted an unusually COLD winter.

It's not hard.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

How dose that thing work??

Why the hell is it so accurate??


T

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

My mom is up there she says they haven't had mail since Friday and she's been snowed in since then too. Lucky she's go preps and a generator or she would be in sad shape.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

OMG! Finally got back from our shopping trip after Mom announced that she needed to stop "for a minute" at a local department store. Yeah, right.

The storm is moving in, snow is heavy and getting worse, roads are in terrible shape. Accidents, spin-outs, cars stuck in snow banks, dead batteries, bumper-to-bumper traffic. I don't think I want to leave the house for three days. We heard on the radio that we should expect power outages, closed roads, etc. etc. I'm glad we made the decision early today not to go to Sandpoint tomorrow. We couldn't get there even if we wanted to, and I wouldn't want to be at the stores trying to purchase a last-minute Christmas dinner just as dark, snow, and rush-hour traffic descend on us.

Weird -- grocery store was absolutely packed (they needed traffic signals on the aisles), but the department store was practically EMPTY. Maybe a dozen shoppers in the whole store. I think this is going to go down in history as the year that the grinch stole the retailers' Christmas.

Hope you are all safe and warm! :36_1_63:

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Farmers alamanac rocks. Lots of good info there.

I think it tracks moon and sun position. Primarily for telling the right time for planting.

Past that, not sure, but it is a worthwhile add in to survival docs.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Well to be fair* the last time Portland had an inch of snow on the ground at Christmas was in 1937. The NW does occasionally get severe weather but its about every 6 to 12 years and almost never this early in the season.

It caught a lot of folks off guard.




*of course, fairness does not extend to the whims of mother nature. oopsey.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

I live over near Boise, ID and we are getting hit with these storms as well but no where as severe as some of the western states. I believe we also have better snow removal services, even some of the roads in my neighborhood were sanded this morning... I was shocked. I'm going to go and buy a generator as soon as I can (only a recent convert to food planning). Have plenty of food stuff in stock to ride a storm out so at least I got that base covered.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Yes! It is absolutely crazy. I don't know where these people walk to either. It's a very bizarre and selfish mentality. Check the local Seattle TV news websites, they might have some video. It's stupid beyond comprehension.

Re: Winter Slam 2008--Observations from the Pacific Northwest
 

Unexpected or extreme weather is the best time to evaluate your current prep status. Where are your defeciencies? What problems did you encounter that you didn't even think of? When we had our wind storm a few years ago, it knocked out power to over 1,000,000 people in WA. The grid was down so to speak. You couldn't get gas because the pumps had no power. You couldn't buy things from some stores because the cash registers didn't work. It was winter time too, so home heating was a huge issue. Some people resorted to using their BBQ's indoors to cook and for heat. They died. Some people ran their generators indoors, probably because they didn't have the ability to plug in whatever appliance they wanted plugged in (no extension cord) or didn't have the space outside for it (apartment living). They died. Grocery stores were cleaned out. People panicking everywhere. As soon as the power was restored, the places that were instantly sold out of generators, had to charge a restocking fee for all of the returns!

Barring a catastrophe, a properly prepped person should have no worries because of bad weather or power outages. Everyone rushing to the grocery store? Not you, you have your food preps. Power out? Not you, you have a backup system. Houses freezing? Not yours, you have an alternative heat source. My biggest regret was my laziness in documenting all of the issues I had due to the wind storm. I was going to write up everything I experienced and what I had learned to share with others, but in the end I didn't. It'll take another wind storm to jog my memory.